With signing day looming, it's time for the Doc's annual, week-long defense of the recruiting-industrial complex. Part Four: Programs that have most consistently defied the gurus' ratings on a head-to-head basis.So far this week, we've been able to draw three conclusions about the usefulness of recruiting rankings: a) On a team level, they're right about twice as often as they're wrong; b) On an individual level, they're the best available gauge for determining which newcomers look like a sound investment; and c) They provide a reliable template for the composition of the top of the polls. On all three levels, the rankings lay as solid a foundation for predictions and assumptions about the future as we can reasonably expect.
Of course, there are exceptions – a lot of them, in the case of individual players, and in the case of individual, out-of-the-blue upsets. It wouldn't be much of a sport without the surprises, or without the possibility of a stunning turn that defies all logical assumptions on any given Saturday. On a broader level, though, the trend in favor of the "more talented" teams cut even deeper than it may seem: While every school has its token triumphs over the heavy hitters, very few are able to consistently play above the projections of the scouts.
When you get past the anecdotal evidence, even most of the low-on-the-totem-pole schools that consistently turn in the kind of winning percentages that put the initial assessments their lineup to shame – see Boise State, Cincinnati, UConn, TCU, Utah and other would-be BCS party crashers over the last five years – pile up those wins over other low-on-the-totem-pole outfits whose recruiting rankings didn't fare much better. Those five schools have combined for four regular season wins in five years over teams whose overall recruiting numbers (according to Rivals) put them in the top 25 nationally since 2006. The vast majority of upstarts feed on other would-be upstarts.
In the big picture, if you're looking for teams that actually built their on-field resumés by over-delivering against rivals that typically (and significantly) beat them in the recruiting rankings, it's a relatively exclusive group – in fact, across the last four years, only five really stand out at all:
1. Oregon. The Ducks' steady emergence in the collective national consciousness under Chip Kelly has been as evident on the trail as on the field, but only relative to their previous obscurity in the recruiting game. Within the Pac-10, their efforts look slightly more ordinary, and not only compared to the luminescence of the annual hauls at USC: Cal and UCLA have both out-recruited Oregon since 2006 according to the gurus, and Arizona, Arizona State and Washington are in roughly the same ballpark.
But none of Oregon's peers have even come within sniffing distance of a Rose Bowl, much less a national championship game. Kelly has managed both in his first two seasons as head coach, with a pair of lopsided cruises over the mighty Trojans in the process. USC signed 22 five-star recruits from 2006-10; Oregon signed one, running back Lache Seastrunk, who didn't see the field at all last year as a redshirt. If the Ducks' newfound status allows them to consistently sign classes like the one they're expected to ink next week, the results could be frightening.
2. Oregon State. Most top recruits couldn't find Corvallis on a map: Since Mike Riley's return from the NFL for his second stint as the Beavers' head coach in 2003, Rivals has yet to rank an OSU recruiting class higher than sixth in the Pac-10; within the conference, only Washington State has fared worse, and that will still be true even after Colorado and Utah come aboard later this year. But only USC and Oregon have better records over the last five years, which has a little to do with Oregon State's penchant for the dramatic upset (the Beavers have taken three straight from the Trojans in Corvallis) and a lot to do with its consistency against the rest of the conference's middle class: OSU is 21-9 against Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, Stanford, UCLA and Washington since the Pac-10 converted to the nine-game schedule in 2006.
3. Virginia Tech. The Hokies haven't fared particularly well against the upper echelon – they were blown out by eventual BCS champ LSU in 2007, and again by eventual BCS champ Alabama in 2009 – but their middle-of-the-pack prowess on the trail hasn't stopped them from dominating the ACC: Tech is 9-3 since '07 against conference peers Florida State, Miami, Clemson and North Carolina, all of which have ostensibly out-recruited the Hokies, with three ACC championships in the same span.
All told, Tech ranks at the fringes of the top 25 in terms of recruiting, but with back-to-back wins over Nebraska and a Chick-Fil-A Bowl rout of Tennessee in 2009, it's won twice as often as its lost over the last four years against teams that brought in more talent according to the gurus.
4. Iowa. Iowa has been considered an upper echelon Big Ten heavy for most of coach Kirk Ferentz's tenure, an achievement considering its consistent finish in the bottom half of the conference in the rankings. The Hawkeyes haven't beaten the league's heaviest hitter, Ohio State, since 2004 – their only win over the Buckeyes under Ferentz – but they have won five straight against Penn State and Michigan, won two of the last three against Wisconsin and taken three of the last four from Michigan State. Now if they just stop losing to Northwestern on the other hand, the end of their 20-year Rose Bowl drought may eventually be in sight.
5. Stanford. Jim Harbaugh established his big-game chops right away with major upsets over USC and Cal in his first season, 2007, but the last two years have been on another level, thanks to back-to-back wins over USC, Notre Dame and UCLA and splits with Cal and Oregon. The Orange Bowl wipeout of Virginia Tech moved the Cardinal to 8-2 in '09-10 against top-25 recruiting teams, just four years removed from finishing 1-11 with losses to San Jose State and Navy. The pre-Harbaugh era already feels like ancient history, and at the current rate, that kind of record may start to seem fairly routine.
Next time, we'll look at the persistent under-achievers on the opposite end of the spectrum.
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Matt Hinton is on Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.
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