Arizona Keys: Hitting Cam Newton, before he hits you

How the BCS Championship will be won.

If Auburn's season taught us anything, it's that no one "stops" Cam Newton. They may contain him, for a quarter or two, or come up with a turnover. But no defense has legitimately stopped Newton at any point this season, and only one – Mississippi State – really even slowed him down, holding the eventual Heisman winner to a season-low 206 total yards and Auburn to a season-low 17 points in Starkville in September.

Since then, only two other defenses, Clemson and Alabama, have contained Newton for any significant period of time, both building big first half leads (17-0 in Clemson's case, 24-0 in Alabama's) that quickly vanished when Auburn opened up the offense in comeback mode. But the Bulldogs, Tigers and Crimson Tide are the only defenses that managed to hold Auburn below 450 yards total offense, and were three of the four that kept Newton and Co. under 30 points.

The common thread in all three: They're the only ones that both a) Put Newton under consistent pressure, and b) Were able to consistently get him off the field on third down.

That's no coincidence. Auburn led the SEC and finished third nationally in converting third downs, at a little over 53 percent for the year, and Mississippi State, Clemson, Arkansas and Alabama were the only defenses that held them significantly below that mark, largely by making their presence well known in the Tiger backfield: MSU had six tackles for loss and sacked Newton twice; Clemson had seven TFLs and a pair of sacks of its own. Alabama's front seven lived in the Auburn backfield for most of the first half on Nov. 26, selling out for nine tackles behind the line and four sacks – three of them by linebacker Courtney Upshaw alone, who seemed to make Newton his personal project for the afternoon. 'Bama's priority was explicitly to take away Newton's threat as a runner, get ahead of the chains in the never-ending battle of down and distance and force him to make plays from the pocket as a passer, which was initially a wild success: Auburn failed on four of its first five third-down attempts, three of them with more than 10 yards to go to move the sticks after a sack or tackle for loss.

In Newton's case, it's more than a trivial, "get 'em off the field" cliché: Auburn was almost unstoppable when faced with a manageable down and distance. Armed with the best short-yardage runner in the country in the shotgun, the Tigers converted on 28 of 38 third down runs with three yards or less to go – almost 75 percent. Third-and-five was even more dangerous: With defenses keyed on Newton, Auburn converted just shy of 80 percent of third down passes with 4 to 6 yards to go, a staggering rate, with almost half of those completions (five of eleven) going for touchdowns. The majority of the Tigers' third downs came with six yards or less to go, and they converted on a full two-thirds of them.

It was only when they were backed up a bit, neutralizing Newton's threat as a runner, that the Tigers start to look somewhat normal. The conversion rates plummet below 50 percent with 7 to 10 yards to go, and plunge further, below 25 percent, when they have to pick up more than ten. The hard part is actually getting them in those situations by making plays in the backfield, and generating a consistent pass rush to disrupt Newton when the offense adjusts to take advantage of its opportunities downfield – where Alabama and Clemson ultimately met their doom.

Statistically, Oregon's in prime position to at least get white jerseys in Newton's face: With their speed and generally aggressive philosophy under defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti, the Ducks led the Pac-10 in tackles for loss and finished second in sacks, led by disruptive defensive tackle Brandon Bair in the middle of the line and top pass rusher Kenny Rowe playing contain off the edge. They'll need that kind of penetration to keep misdirect Newton at the line of scrimmage and keep him from getting a head of steam into the secondary, where things can really get out of hand. But just as importantly, they need the penetration to keep him out of situations where he can simply plow into the line of scrimmage and fall two yards forward for first downs, over and over again.

True, a hyper-focus on Newton leaves you vulnerable downfield, where Newton has proved himself plenty lethal when given the opportunity, and to offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn's bottomless bag of misdirection and other tricks designed to feast on overaggressiveness. But this is a beast of an offense, and if the Ducks aim anywhere other than directly at its heart, they'll be torn apart in short order.

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Matt Hinton is on Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.

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